The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global renewable energy capacity to expand significantly over the next five years as governments increasingly prioritise energy security and reduce dependence on imported fuels and volatile energy prices.
The IEA’s Renewables 2026 report forecasts nearly 4,800 GW of global renewable power capacity additions between 2026 and 2031, representing an increase of almost 60% compared with the previous six-year period. Solar photovoltaic (PV) is projected to contribute more than 75% of the total capacity growth, followed by onshore wind.
The ongoing disruptions to global energy markets following the Iran war have further strengthened the focus on domestic energy sources. Increased policy support and energy security concerns are accelerating renewable energy deployment across India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East. For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much renewable power capacity as advanced economies during the 2026-2031 period.
China will remain the largest contributor to the global increase in renewable power capacity, but its share is set to decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the forecast period amid changes to its renewable energy policies. India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031. Growth is also increasing across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Across these regions, the amount of renewable capacity added in the 2026-2031 period is forecast to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.
“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets – but today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world. This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it.”
The growth in renewable power additions is not only the result of major installations by utilities and developers; it is also being driven directly by consumers in many countries. Faced with high fuel prices and unreliable electricity supplies in some markets, households and small businesses around the world are increasingly turning to more affordable rooftop solar PV systems that can be installed quickly. These small-scale installations have already helped improve electricity services for around 70 million households worldwide, the report finds.
The report forecasts that the use of renewable energy for transport will rise by more than 60% by 2031, by which point it will cover 6% of the transport sector’s energy demand worldwide. Renewable electricity used by electric vehicles accounts for around 45% of this increase, while biofuels are making the second-largest contribution. As an immediate response to high fuel prices and availability challenges, several countries, notably in Southeast Asia and Latin America, have raised blending mandates, which set the minimum proportion of biofuels that has to be blended into gasoline or diesel sold at the pump. Our forecast for biofuels is revised up by 40% compared with last year’s report.
The report also highlights the importance of secure and diversified supply chains as renewables take on a larger role in energy systems worldwide. India is emerging as an important alternative source of supply, with its share of global solar PV module manufacturing expected to almost double to 17% over the next five years, helping diversify a market that remains highly concentrated.
As solar PV and wind continue to expand rapidly around the world, enhancing power system flexibility becomes critically important for energy security, offering new opportunities in the process. The highest priority is for countries to ensure investment in electricity grids keeps pace with the growth of renewable capacity. This should be complemented by reforms to speed up the connection of new renewable power installations to electricity networks. The amount of advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects waiting for grid connections worldwide increased by 60% over the past year to 3 000 GW, four times the wind and solar PV capacity connected to the grid last year.
Meanwhile, the deployment of battery storage has been accelerating in many countries, offering an important way to increase the flexibility of electricity systems rapidly. Measures to enable electricity demand to become more flexible are equally important and can be implemented quickly. Digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, can help shift demand towards periods when renewable power supply is abundant, allowing a better use of variable renewable generation sources. Together, these measures will be crucial to ensuring that the rapid expansion of renewables translates into more secure, affordable and reliable energy supplies worldwide.
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