India is no longer asking whether green hydrogen will matter — it is now confronting how fast it can make it work. With a ₹20,000 crore National Green Hydrogen Mission and a 5 MTPA target by 2030, the country has signalled intent at an unprecedented scale. But as Ajinkya S. Kamat, Associate Director – Innovation, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA) underscores, 2026 will separate ambition from execution. Certification mechanisms, incentive disbursement, and on-ground commissioning are no longer policy details — they are the hinge on which the entire transition turns.
Meanwhile, Vatsal Kundalia, Managing Director, Advait Greenergy Private Limited, brings the conversation back to fundamentals: industrial-scale hydrogen will not rise on announcements alone. It requires bankable, long-term offtake structures, synchronised renewable integration, and disciplined project execution.
In this cover story, The Battery Magazine decodes the real inflection points — cost benchmarks, electrolyser scale-up risks, hydrogen valleys, renewable-storage integration, and the 2027–2029 window when India’s first commercially repeatable projects must prove that hydrogen is not just a vision, but a viable industrial pillar.
India has set ambitious green hydrogen targets for 2030. From your perspective, what is the single most critical policy or regulatory shift required in the next 24–36 months to move hydrogen from pilot projects to industrial-scale deployment?
Ajinkya S. Kamat, Associate Director – Innovation, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), said, “India launched the National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) with an outlay of about ₹20,000 Cr and a target of achieving 5 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) green hydrogen production by 2030. This is equivalent to about 60% of India’s projected hydrogen demand in 2030. Over the past three years, NGHM schemes worth over ₹13,000 Cr have progressed to various stages of implementation. 12 states have also announced a broad range of incentives and supportive measures for the green hydrogen sector. While industry has announced green hydrogen projects of about 9 MTPA production capacity, projects of about 400 kTPA capacity have progressed to Final Investment Decisions (FID) or received long-term offtake commitments.
While this is appreciable progress, 2026 is a critical year in India’s green hydrogen transition, because on-ground scheme implementation, project construction and commissioning over the next year will determine how close India gets to achieving the 2030 NGHM target.
From policy perspective, establishment of reliable, robust, and speedy implementation mechanisms for the Green Hydrogen Certification Scheme of India and disbursement mechanisms for committed financial incentives within the next year is critical. This is a key determinant of whether the first batch of green hydrogen and green ammonia projects commission in time over the next 2-3 years and become commercially sustainable.
Vatsal Kundalia, Managing Director, Advait Greenergy Private Limited, said, “If I had to identify one critical shift, it would be the creation of clear, bankable long-term offtake mechanisms. Technology readiness and manufacturing capacity are progressing, but industrial-scale deployment depends on predictable demand backed by structured contracts. Whether through mandate-based procurement, aggregation platforms, or viability gap-linked offtake security, developers and lenders need visibility on revenue streams beyond pilot horizons.
In parallel, faster alignment between renewable power allocation, transmission connectivity, and hydrogen production facilities will be crucial. Hydrogen projects cannot scale if power sourcing, grid approvals, and open-access structures remain fragmented. The next phase of growth will depend less on announcements and more on synchronised policy execution across power, industry, and manufacturing.”
Cost parity remains a key challenge for green hydrogen. What cost benchmarks (₹/kg or $/kg) do you believe are realistically achievable by 2030, and which levers—electrolysers, power sourcing, scale, or incentives—will have the biggest impact?
Ajinkya S. Kamat, Associate Director – Innovation, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), said, “Over the past year, India has seen 13 price discoveries of green ammonia in the range of ₹50-65/kg of ammonia (excluding GST). These are new benchmarks, 25-42% lower than the previous global benchmark of green ammonia prices. Furthermore, reverse auctions for four tenders by public-sector refineries have discovered green hydrogen prices of ₹279-336/kg of green hydrogen (excluding GST). These, too, are among the lowest in the world.
Cost of electricity accounts for at least 60-70% of green hydrogen cost when produced using water electrolysis. Energy storage also has a crucial role in increasing capacity utilization of electrolysis plants, by supplying the stored renewable electricity when the sun is not shining or wind is not blowing. Higher the capacity utilization, sooner the projects can become profitable, thus, reducing GH2 costs.
Most of the green hydrogen and green ammonia projects expected to be commissioned within the next 2-3 years are being developed by companies with deep experience in renewable power generation and energy storage sectors. This is giving the market confidence that the low prices of electricity underlying the low green hydrogen and green ammonia price discoveries would become a reality when these projects become operational.
Few operational electrolyzer plants of this scale (100 MW+) exist in the world. The largest operational water electrolyzer plants outside China have less than 60 MW capacity with only 3 operational plants larger than 100 MW in China. Therefore, the actual price of green hydrogen in the first batch of projects will also depend on whether electrolyzer systems perform at this scale with the same reliability and efficiency that is quoted by the technology suppliers.”
Vatsal Kundalia, Managing Director, Advait Greenergy, said, “By 2030, green hydrogen in India realistically needs to approach a cost range where it can compete with grey hydrogen in sectors exposed to carbon regulation or export markets. Achieving a sub-$2/kg equivalent benchmark in favourable renewable zones may be possible in select clusters, but this will require disciplined execution across multiple cost levers rather than reliance on one variable.
The most powerful drivers will be access to low-cost round-the-clock renewable energy, domestic electrolyser manufacturing at scale, and improved plant load factors through hybridisation with storage or firm power. Incentives and production-linked schemes can accelerate early economics, but structural cost reduction will ultimately come from scale, operational efficiency, and integrated project design rather than subsidies alone.”
Hydrogen valleys are emerging as a preferred model globally. In India’s context, what must a hydrogen valley get right—in terms of infrastructure, offtake, and integration with renewables—to avoid becoming a cluster of stranded assets?
Ajinkya S. Kamat, Associate Director – Innovation, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), said, “Locating production of green hydrogen or its derivatives close to consumers – if possible, a cluster of consumers – or to ports (for exports) could help economies of scale and reduce storage and distribution costs of GH2 or its derivatives. Industry clusters adopt similar approach to improve supply chain efficiencies and economies of scale. Such green hydrogen clusters are often called green hydrogen hubs or valleys.
India is developing three green hydrogen hubs, near Kandla port (Gujarat), Paradeep port (Odisha), and Tuticorin port (Tamil Nadu). In addition, NTPC Green Energy Ltd. is developing another GH2 hub in Pudimadaka (Andhra Pradesh).
India is also developing four Hydrogen Valley Innovation Clusters (HVICs), with Public-Private Partnerships to validate novel technologies, business models, and applications of hydrogen at commercial pilot scale. These HVICs will be located near Pune, Kochi, Bhubaneswar, and Jodhpur.
While the green hydrogen hubs will help achieve scale of mature technologies, HVICs will help validate novel technologies and approaches.”
Vatsal Kundalia, Managing Director, Advait Greenergy, said, “For a hydrogen valley to succeed in India, the first and most important factor is secured, anchor offtake. Production without committed industrial demand creates stranded capacity risk. A valley must be built around predictable consumption—refineries, fertilisers, steel, or heavy mobility—rather than speculative production awaiting buyers.
Equally important is integrated infrastructure planning. Renewable sourcing, water availability, storage systems, evacuation, and downstream logistics must be designed as a single ecosystem. Fragmented development—where generation, production, and usage evolve independently—will undermine cost competitiveness and reliability. A hydrogen valley must function as an industrial cluster, not simply a grouping of projects.”
Green hydrogen does not exist in isolation—it depends on power grids, storage, water, and downstream demand. How do you see hydrogen integrating with India’s broader energy ecosystem, especially renewable power and energy storage, over the next decade?
Ajinkya S. Kamat, Associate Director – Innovation, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), said, “Today, India produces and consumes about 7 MTPA hydrogen produced from fossil fuels. Refining and ammonia production for fertilizers account for over 90% of this demand. Because green hydrogen is at least two to three times more expensive compared to hydrogen produced from fossil fuels for refining or fertilizers industries, securing committed long-term downstream demand for green hydrogen is the main challenge.
Refining and production of ammonia, methanol, and many other specialty chemicals require hydrogen as an essential feedstock. Therefore, decarbonization of these industries is not possible without reducing GHG emissions in hydrogen production.
Rationale for green hydrogen goes beyond decarbonization. India is the largest importer of ammonia in the world and imports over 90% of methanol we consume. Scaling production of these chemicals within India, from green hydrogen, would help reduce imports without increasing natural gas imports.
Today, domestic natural gas is mainly supplied for ammonia production, while importing natural gas for transportation (as a fuel and for refining). This helps limit fertilizers costs and, in turn, food prices. Shifting from natural gas-based process to electrolysis for hydrogen production could reduce natural gas demand for ammonia production, potentially making it available to reduce imports for the transportation sector.
As green hydrogen production from electrolysis would add to renewable energy and energy storage demand in India, thus, supporting these industries and help reduce renewable energy curtailment.
Producing 1 kg hydrogen from water electrolysis theoretically requires 9 litres of deionized water. However, considering efficiencies of practical systems, hydrogen production from water electrolysis, steam methane reforming, or coal gasification requires 20-30 litres of freshwater per kg of hydrogen. Therefore, green hydrogen production is not expected put any extra pressure on water resources and infrastructure compared to fossil fuels-based hydrogen.”
Vatsal Kundalia, Managing Director, Advait Greenergy, said, “Green hydrogen will increasingly act as a flexibility layer within the broader renewable ecosystem. As variable renewable penetration rises, surplus generation during peak hours can be channelled into hydrogen production, effectively converting intermittent power into storable energy and industrial feedstock. Over time, this improves renewable utilisation and grid stability.
Hydrogen will also connect with energy storage strategies, particularly where long-duration storage becomes relevant. While batteries are well suited for short-to-mid duration balancing, hydrogen can support seasonal or industrial-scale storage requirements. The long-term architecture will likely see renewables, batteries, and hydrogen working in complementary roles rather than competing technologies.”
Many companies have announced hydrogen roadmaps, but fewer have commissioned assets. By which year do you believe India will see commercially viable, repeatable green hydrogen projects at scale—and what will differentiate the first movers from the rest?
Ajinkya S. Kamat, Associate Director – Innovation, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA), said, “The largest operational green hydrogen plant in India has the capacity of 3,800 TPA. We expect projects that have already crossed Final Investment Decisions (FID), amounting to over 300 kTPA capacity, to commission over the next three years. While many of these projects would have less than 20 kTPA capacity each, at least a couple of projects with about 100 kTPA capacity are also expected to become operational in phases.
This first batch of projects would not only help reduce green hydrogen costs and validate technologies, business models, and use cases for GH2 but also provide the first mover project developers valuable experience of producing and supplying green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol plants at this scale.”
Vatsal Kundalia, Managing Director, Advait Greenergy, said, “We are likely to see the first wave of commercially viable and repeatable green hydrogen projects emerging between 2027 and 2029, provided regulatory clarity and bankable contracting frameworks mature within the next few years. Early projects are essential learning platforms, but scale comes only once financing and risk allocation models stabilise.
The first movers who succeed will differentiate themselves through disciplined capital allocation, integrated execution capability, and realistic risk modelling. Success will not belong to those who simply announce capacity, but to those who secure long-term offtake, manage lifecycle costs, and build technically robust assets that can operate reliably over 15–20 years. In hydrogen, credibility will be earned through performance, not projections.”
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